Recession Over?

There’s been some chatter about this recession being over, but call me a pessimist, I don’t think we’re quite there yet.  Here’s why:
1. Consumer spending was up as a result of the cash for clunkers program, which concentrated a few months of consumer spending into 2 weeks.
2. A new wave of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are due to be reset soon, which means there will be another round of mortgage defaults/foreclosures in the next few months.  Which means more garbage loans banks will be holding.
3. Rise in home sales was largely due to sale of foreclosed properties, short sales, etc.
4. And finally, I think banks are still ‘cooking their books’.  Profits reported by CITI, BOA, and Goldman were probably half truths, if not out right lies.
So don’t break out the champagne just yet.

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